Electric bus is a game changer in the battery market

By Dr Victoria Adesanya-Aworinde, technology analyst with IDTech.com

Electric buses are one of the major markets for large-sized lithium-ion (Li-ion) batteries. On a sales volume per year basis, electric buses grew by 54.6% from 2014 to 2015 with a significant proportion of production and sales of electric buses taking place in China.

This rapid growth is a game changer for the Li-ion battery market as electric buses require large-sized batteries ranging from 74 kWh (fast charging e-bus) to over 300 kWh (slow charging e-bus). Indeed, the IDTechEx Research report predicts a large e-bus battery market that will grow to $30 billion by 2026, potentially making it the largest segment of the overall battery market.

This is being driven by strict government emission standards and the desire to curtail air pollution – electric buses are displacing fossil fuel buses that are major sources of CO2, NOx, SOx and particulate matter (PM) emissions in cities.

Pure electric buses are overtaking the hybrid ones in terms of sales in China as policies favour pure electric powertrains. In addition, the Chinese government reduced and will eventually stop subsidies for hybrid buses that do not plug-in because these cannot operate with long electric range in city centres to reduce local emissions sharply.

Besides government policies triggering the growth of electric buses, advancement in battery technology in terms of cost, driving range, safety, energy and power density has also contributed to the adoption of transport electrification.

Indeed, we believe battery-powered electric vehicles (BEV) will dominate the clean vehicle market in the coming years. There is ongoing research effort and investments which is supporting the improvement of Li-ion batteries for EV applications.

Currently, the best selling BYD electric bus (K9) has a battery capacity of 324 kWh providing an electric range of 150 miles (250 km) per charge. Range anxiety will be a thing of the past, as a driving range of 300 miles is promised soon with improvement in not only battery technology, but other factors such as light weighting, aerodynamics and powertrain efficiency.

Ideally, EVs are aiming to compete with conventional internal combustion engined (ICE) powered vehicles, that have a driving range of 300 – 400 miles.