EV uptake rises 1000% since 2010

Electric vehicles (EVs) could make up 15% to 35% of total new vehicle sales globally in 2040, according to financial services company IHS Markit.

While electric vehicles constitute a small percentage of the world’s vehicle sales and are just 1% of the on-road fleet today, sales in 2016 are up more than 1000% since 2010.

That’s a trend IHS Markit expects to continue with the potential to make EVs more than one third of the new vehicle sales in 2040.

“Significant advances in battery technology, financial support from governments, regulations and values of millennials will be key factors leading to increases in EV adoption,” says Jim Burkhard, study co-director and chief of research at IHS Markit for crude oil markets and energy scenarios.

New Zealand is among the most recent movers on the incentive front, forming a special council tasked with accelerating the deployment of EVs on the road this year.

The government has launched an initiative aimed at doubling the amount of EVs on the road to 64,000 by 2021.

NZ Transport Minister Simon Bridges says consumers would pay the per-gallon equivalent of 85% less for fuel with EVs.

Additionally, in China and Europe, regions where policies are favourable to EVs, IHS Markit estimates that EVs could comprise over half of new passenger vehicle sales in 2040.

“The key question is whether we are approaching a transformative shift akin to the first decade of the 20th century, when the internal combustion engine, cheap gasoline, bicycle technology and mass production combined to usher in the automotive age,” says Daniel Yergin, vice chairman of IHS Markit.

The International Energy Agency says it expects a record-setting 1.26 million EVs to be on the road by the end of the year.

Compared with 2015, the IEA found substantial gains in the sale and construction of the infrastructure needed to support a broader network of EVs worldwide.

A measure included the Paris climate declaration, meanwhile, calls for 100 million EVs on the market by 2030 in an effort to curb emissions levels.