E-trucks on the charge

Trucks are rapidly heading towards zero emission, according to a new IDTechEx report.

That’s in answer to calls for drastic emissions reductions from the transport sector, the report Electric Truck Markets 2021-2041 adds.

For instance, new standards adopted by the California Air Resources Board in June mandate that 75% of new Class 4-8 ridged truck and 55% of new tractor truck sales must be zero-emission by 2035.

With 11.6% of the US truck fleet (1.7 million trucks) in California, this legislation will be a significant driver not only for the Californian electric medium and heavy-duty truck (M&HDT) market, but act as a catalyst for the US, setting a benchmark for the rest of the world, the report says.

“Drastic emissions reductions are required from the transport sector, both to protect the global climate and to improve urban air quality,” IDTechEx says, estimating the e-truck market could be worth US$203 billion in about 20 years.

“Battery electric (BEV) and fuel cell electric vehicle (FCEV) trucks offer OEMs the avenue to an ultra-low on-road emission future.”

 The new report provides a COVID-19 adjusted, 20-year outlook for both the MDT and HDT markets, with separate forecast lines for BEV, plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV), and FCEV, at the global scale and for key regions such as China, the US and Europe.

In recognition of the tightening legislative landscape for exhaust emissions and growing demand for cleaner transport technologies, truck OEMs are now investing heavily in electric drivetrain programmes, the report says.

For example, Daimler has set a target for 2039 of tank-to-wheel CO2 neutrality for all new vehicles it sells in the US, European, and Japanese markets.

To meet this aim, it is developing e-trucks in a range of sizes from a 7.5 tonne eCanter to a 40 tonne Freightliner eCascadia.

The company has also been doing real-world trials of the technology with partners around the world.

Likewise, MAN, Scania, Volvo, Renault, IVECO, DAF, Paccar and Navistar are all doing e-truck trials, with several models in limited production.

Much of the e-truck press has been reserved for Tesla which, in April, once again delayed production of its Tesla Semi long-haul truck, this time until 2021 (two-years behind the original schedule).

But if Tesla can deliver the vehicle with the expected 800km plus range for US$150,000 then it has the potential to significantly disrupt the industry, IDTechEx says.

It has taken more than 2000 pre-orders, with companies such as PepsiCo, UPS and Walmart keen to test the vehicle as part of their distribution fleets.

China leads the way in e-truck deployment with government support for the country’s EV industry driving a boom in e-buses giving it a significant advantage in volume production of heavy-duty EVs.

Several OEMs – including Toyota, Hyundai, and Nikola – have focussed on FCEVs.

Despite issues with the inefficiency of hydrogen as a transport fuel, FCEV remains in the conversation for long-haul applications (where the daily range requirement is difficult for BEVs), though the viability of FCEV trucks is dependent on the yet to be realised production of cheap green hydrogen, the report suggests.

However, it says Nikola is set to launch a BEV HDT well ahead of its FCEV, which could be a sign for all FCEV M&HDT players.

IDTechEx’s report is intended to help businesses across the automotive value chain plan in this changing market.