Radar critical for mobility’s future

Radar is fundamental to automotive safety and critical to achieving emerging level four autonomy.

So says IDTechEx in its latest report Automotive Radar 2022-2042, adding that while today more than 50% of new cars are shipped with one or more radars, by 2042 all new vehicles will come with multiple radars.

Contrary to Tesla’s move to drop radar for cameras only in its Model 3 and Model Y, IDTechEx says while cameras can be used to enable advanced driver-assistance systems (ADAS) features, most manufacturers opt for radar.

It says the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) in the US has received multiple complaints about phantom braking while the systems are engaged.

“Phantom braking typically occurs when a radar detects a false positive and activates the emergency braking, something Tesla were trying to improve with camera only.”

 IDTechEx says one reason for Tesla dropping radar was the poor angular resolution that radar previously struggled with.

“This would make tasks such as separating a stationary vehicle underneath an overpass from the overpass itself nearly impossible.

“However, Tesla was using a radar from 2014 and the industry has moved on a long way since. For this reason, alongside the advantages discussed above, IDTechEx analysts do not believe Tesla will set the trend.”

Front-mounted radars are critical for enabling common ADAS features, automatic emergency braking, and adaptive cruise control. Radar is the go-to sensor solution as it precisely measures the range and velocity of vehicles, while also being robust to darkness, poor weather, and fog, IDTechEx  adds.

“Active safety features have already proven effective, reducing rear-end collisions by 45% (European Transport Safety Council). The safety benefits are leading to a push from regulators and safety bodies, such as Euro NCAP, to get automatic emergency braking fitted to all new vehicles.”

IDTechEx has considered these regulatory pushes in its report and predicts strong growth in radar adoption as a result, explaining that radar is approaching the performance of lidar.

“The performance available in radar sensors has been improving rapidly over the past decade,” it says.

“Products on offer from tier one suppliers such as Bosch, Continental, and Denso are an order of magnitude better than like for likes from five to 10 years ago.

IDTechEx has undertaken primary research interviewing eight start-ups and five tier one and two automotive suppliers.

 Level three vehicles have already hit the roads of Japan and are expected to enter the European market in 2022, those and more expected to have at least five radars per vehicle.

“Each of these radars will also need to have higher performance than ever before,” says IDTechEx, adding that increased safety, demand for higher levels of autonomy, and growing performance levels will drive radar adoption.