85m EVs globally forecast by end of next year

About 85 million EVs (including cars, buses, vans and heavy trucks) are expected on the road globally by the end of 2025.

That’s a 33% increase on this year, says Gartner’s latest forecast.

Of these, 73% will be battery electric vehicles (BEVs), with plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) expected to grow at a slightly slower rate reaching 23 million units in 2025, up 28% from 2024.

In Australia, more than 488,000 EVs are expected on the road by 2025, a 49% increase over 2024. BEVs will account for 73%, totalling almost 357,000 units by the end of 2025.

In New Zealand, almost 182,600 EVs are expected on the road by 2025, a 30% increase over 2024. BEVs will account for 74%, totalling more than 134,800 units by the end of 2025.

“Despite several hurdles affecting the EV market over the past few months, we are projecting the number of EVs in use globally to total 64 million units in 2024 and increase 33% in 2025,” says Gartner analyst senior director Jonathan Davenport.

“Many companies overestimated how quickly the switch to EVs would occur. This caused those companies to delay launching new EV models.

“The growth in 2025 will be driven primarily by higher EV sales in China (58%) and Europe (24%), which together are projected to represent 82% of total EVs in use worldwide.”

By 2025, Gartner estimates 49 million EVs will be on the road in China, compared to 20.6 million EVs in Europe and 10.4 million EVs in North America.

Automakers will enable recycling of 95% of EV batteries by 2030, says Davenport.

“Since concentrations of rare metals in batteries are higher than in natural ores, spent batteries can be seen as highly enriched ore,” he says.

“If recovered at large scale, the spent batteries could support the overall commercial viability of EVs by bringing battery prices down.

“There would be the additional benefit of batteries not ending up being disposed of in unethical manners or put into landfill sites.”

Gartner clients can read more in Forecast: Electric Vehicle Shipments, Worldwide, 2023-2032.

Meanwhile, the Asia-Pacific (APAC) EV infrastructure market will expand at 13.5% CAGR over 2024-2029, forecasts GlobalData, adding governments worldwide face the challenge of creating the strong infrastructure required to accelerate the EV shift.

“To facilitate the widespread adoption of EVs in the APAC region, it is critical to enhance the EV charging infrastructure,” says GlobalData automotive analyst Madhuchhanda Palit

“Considering that APAC is the most densely populated region in the world, the prospect of long wait times at charging stations may deter potential EV consumers,” she says.

“Therefore, to achieve the electrification goals set by the governments of APAC countries and to drive EV adoption, there is an urgent need to augment the quantity of EV charging stations, with a particular focus on fast charging stations.”