Big future for eLCVs

More than 11 million electric light commercial vehicles (eLCVs) will be sold annually by 2045.

So says IDTechEx in its report Electric Light Commercial Vehicles 2025-2045: Markets, Players, Forecasts which considers 20-year forecasts for battery-electric, plug-in hybrid, and fuel cell LCVs across Europe, China, US and the rest of the world.

The eLCV market may not be as developed as that of electric cars but increasing demand for zero-emission mobility from governments and the public combined with electrification progress from OEMs and continuing maturation of battery technology, have created substantial growth in the eLCV industry, says IDTechEx.

It says much of the eLCV market’s growth to date has been driven by government regulation and the increasing desire to roll out zero-emission last mile logistics solutions for road freight and e-commerce.

“This has led to roughly 5% of all LCV sales in 2023 being EVs – greater than any other class of commercial vehicles except buses.

“However, the spread of eLCVs globally has been far from equal.

“Europe and China, driven by tighter emissions restrictions and more lucrative purchase grants for eLCVs, have both seen rapid market expansion and are approaching 10% EV penetration.

“Meanwhile, the US lags far behind on electrification legislation and benefits from lower fossil fuel prices to the detriment of its eLCV market.”

 The IDTechEx report expects the regulatory landscape around eLCV emissions will become even more restrictive over the next 20 years as governments stretch to meet their Paris Agreement goals and other sustainability initiatives.

“These will come in the form of low-emission and zero-emission zones as well as outright bans on the sale of fossil fuel LCVs,” says IDTechEx.

“Most notably, the EU has already passed such a ban for 2035, while the UK has considered an earlier 2030 date and China is expected to impose a ban too.”

The US has introduced new decarbonisation plans specifically for LCVs, including revamped subsidy programs.

This report covers100 eLCV models from key OEMs (including Renault, Ford, Hyundai, and Geely.

The cost of an eLCV will soon be favourable over a diesel LCV, while eLCVs already benefit from lower operating costs (from energy and maintenance) than a combustion engine alternative but suffer from high capital cost and poor resale value, leading to higher total costs of ownership, says IDTechEx.

“However, continued development of vehicle and battery technology and economies of scale from increased production will help bring down the upfront cost of eLCVs.

“At the same time, governments are offering assistance in the form of purchase grants while increasingly stringent emissions regulation makes it more costly to own a combustion LCV.”

IDTechEx expects diesel and electric LCVs will achieve upfront cost parity and also equalise in resale value, allowing the eLCV to generate total ownership cost savings and providing a market driver for adoption.

Hydrogen fuel cell (FCEV) LCVs provide the potential for greater range and faster refuelling than what a battery-electric (BEV) model could promise.

“But for an FCEV to truly be a zero-emission solution, it must utilise green hydrogen – currently in short supply and far more expensive to use in LCVs than electricity,” says IDTechEx.

“Hydrogen also suffers from a lack of adequate production and transport infrastructure in the short-term, though this will be remedied with time.”