New dataset maps New Zealand’s energy demand to 2050

Researchers at University of Canterbury have released a new open dataset mapping how New Zealand’s energy demand could evolve hour-by-hour and region-by-region through to 2050.

Published in the journal Scientific Data, the dataset provides projections of energy demand across three major sectors — electricity, heating and transport — under several future transition scenarios.

Lead author Rafaella Canessa, who is completing her PhD at the University of Canterbury and is now a postdoctoral researcher at the Research Center for Energy Networks at ETH Zurich, says the project addresses a significant gap in national energy planning.

“Reaching net zero is not only about expanding renewable energy supply, but also about how energy is used across homes, transport and industry,” Canessa says.

“Our research presents a nationwide energy-demand dataset for New Zealand to 2050 across five transition pathways. The dataset provides regional detail for solid, liquid and gaseous fuels, including fossil, bio-based and synthetic carriers, and hourly resolution for electricity demand across sectors.”

The dataset combines hourly electricity demand patterns with regional energy consumption across multiple sectors, providing a foundation for modelling the country’s future net-zero energy system.

Canessa says the work will support further research into New Zealand’s energy transition.

“At UC’s Sustainable Energy Research Group (SERG), we are building on this dataset with deeper demand-side analyses and full energy-system optimisation, including the required electricity generation capacity and synthetic fuel production needed to achieve net zero,” she says.

New Zealand’s growing electrification — including electric vehicles, heat pumps and increasing industrial demand — is expected to significantly reshape the country’s energy system over the coming decades.

The dataset highlights several key trends, including the growing influence of transport and heating transitions on overall energy use, shifting demand peaks revealed through hour-by-hour modelling, and differing energy demand pathways across regions.

Researchers also note that increasing electrification in transport and heating could progressively shift more energy demand onto the electricity system.

UC project supervisor and co-lead of the Sustainable Energy Research Group, Rebecca Peer, says the research provides a clearer picture of the country’s future energy needs.

“This work helps contribute to our understanding of what our future energy needs might be. This is important for planning our future energy system and understanding different pathways to meet our net-zero commitments,” Peer says.

She says one of the main challenges was translating broad energy transition plans into detailed modelling data.

“The main technical challenge was turning big-picture energy transition plans into detailed data that computer models can use. This meant combining national and regional data, modelling how different fuels and technologies might change over time, and making sure every scenario was internally consistent.”

The dataset has been published as a Data Descriptor article in Scientific Data, part of the Nature Portfolio, and is freely available for reuse.