IEA lifts EV sales forecast as second-quarter demand rebounds

Global electric vehicle sales rebounded strongly in the second quarter of 2026, prompting the International Energy Agency (IEA) to lift its forecast for EV market share this year despite weaker demand in China and the United States.

In its latest report, Electric Car Markets in a Time of Uncertainty, the IEA says second-quarter EV sales reached record levels across 50 countries, with Australia, Brazil, India, South Korea and Vietnam all recording sales that roughly doubled compared with the same period last year.

The rebound follows a weak first quarter, when global EV sales fell as overall vehicle demand softened in China and the United States.

The IEA says global vehicle sales declined about 5% in the first half of 2026 amid economic pressures, fuel price volatility and changing government policies.

Despite that, global EV sales rose 35% in the second quarter compared with the first three months of the year, with more than 90 countries recording year-on-year growth during the first half of 2026.

The agency now expects electric vehicles to account for 29% of global new car sales this year, up from its previous forecast of 28%.

The IEA says renewed fuel price volatility following the conflict in the Middle East has reinforced the appeal of electric vehicles in many markets, while continued policy support in Europe, Latin America and Southeast Asia has also supported demand.

China is expected to remain the world’s largest EV market, although the IEA forecasts sales there will stagnate for the first time this decade. Even so, more than 60% of new vehicle sales in China are expected to be electric this year.

The report also highlights growing exports from China, with electric vehicle exports during the first six months of 2026 almost matching the total for all of 2025. The IEA estimates more than one million Chinese-built EVs are currently available for sale in overseas markets.

It says increasing exports from Chinese manufacturers are expected to intensify competition for established automakers, particularly in emerging markets where demand for lower-cost electric vehicles continues to grow.