Analysts split on Tesla’s Q3 deliveries ahead of Friday report

Wall Street can’t agree on how many cars Tesla delivered in the third quarter. Analyst estimates ahead of the company’s report range from about 421,800 to 482,000 vehicles, a spread of roughly 60,000 units.

Tesla is due to publish its Q3 production and delivery figures on Friday, October 2, US time.

Where the estimates sit

Electrek has compiled forecasts from six firms. JPMorgan is the most optimistic at 482,000, although that is down from its earlier 516,000. Barclays sits at 475,000 and UBS at 470,000.

Further down, StoneX expects 446,500 and Goldman Sachs 435,000, cut from 490,000. Cantor Fitzgerald has the lowest figure at 421,758.

The median of those six is about 458,000. Visible Alpha’s consensus is between 449,000 and 454,000, while Bloomberg’s sits at 466,000. Prediction market Kalshi has bettors in the low-to-mid 470,000s.

Down on last year

Every one of those estimates would be a drop on the same quarter last year, when Tesla delivered a record 497,099 vehicles. Most also point to a fall from Q2 2026, when it delivered 480,126.

The Q2 result came in well ahead of expectations. Analysts had pencilled in around 406,000, and Tesla beat that by about 74,000 units.

The recent downward revisions follow weak August sales in two of Tesla’s biggest markets. US sales fell 26 per cent year on year to about 40,816 units, and China retail sales were down 12.4 per cent to around 50,047.