EV future has many variables

The future is uncertain – at least for EVs long-term.

That’s among findings in a US Energy Information Administration new report Plug-in electric vehicles: Future market conditions and adoption rates, which studies the long-term international outlook for EVs.

“Variability surrounding future battery technology, government policies, consumer preferences, and other developments related to personal transportation markets casts a great deal of uncertainty on the long-term effects that battery electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles may have on worldwide energy consumption,” Melissa Lynes of the EIA says.

While decreases in battery cell and pack costs and government incentives have been factors helping PEVs reach their current level of market penetration, many uncertainties around future government policies and other market-related developments remain, the report notes.

The EIA report, released on October 23, points out several governments have begun removing or phasing out policies encouraging PEV purchase, resulting in immediate and significant PEV sales reductions.

Many governments hope manufacturing costs will come down quickly enough to make PEVs more competitive, leading to increased sales, the report adds.

It looks at low and high PEV uptake scenarios, saying factors most commonly focused on are differences in purchase prices and operational costs between plug-in and gasoline-fuelled vehicles.

“To reach price parity with gasoline-fuelled vehicles, battery packs for plug-in electric vehicles will likely need to decrease to about $100/kWh.”

Battery pack costs for most manufactures are still more than $200/kWh, the report says.

It adds that consumer preferences also need to be considered, and the report expects EV uptake to be greater in developed countries, particularly where supportive infrastructure like a good charging network is readily available.

The report examines market trends around PEVs and compares results from standalone runs of the EIA’s new International Transportation Energy Demand Determinates model to those presented in the International Energy Outlook 2017 (IEO2017).

The report’s focus is on the light-duty vehicle sector because, globally, such vehicles consume more energy than any other transportation mode, and most of the PEV policies are for light-duty vehicles (excluding two or three-wheelers).

Visit eia.gov for more information.