Driverless vehicles face challenges: report

Autonomous vehicles (AVs) will make it easier and cheaper for New Zealanders to get around, but AVs face challenges.

One of these is the time taken for their expected adoption.

The report, done in association with the Transport and Economic Research Institute, says driverless taxis and public transport will become common while vehicle ownership may start to decline, with reduced demand for off-street parking.

It is likely that AVs will be used by the public in the near future, the report says. “However, we also expect that it will be some time before they have a significant impact.”

From next year until 2040, AVs will remain expensive, primarily used for commercial vehicle travel such as delivery and taxi services, a newly released Autonomous Vehicles Research Report from MRCagney says.

The vehicle fleet’s slow turnover means at least a decade before a high-level of adoption is achieved, the report says.

It suggests the government uses that period to sort regulatory and policy frameworks.

“Over time, we expect the costs of autonomous vehicles to come down, public perceptions to shift, regulations to be updated, and society to adapt to the benefits of the technology.”

AVs will become more affordable after 2040, used extensively to deliver retail items such as groceries, which will take pressure off retail parking.

The final phase, from 2055-2070, would see AV technology used for most private vehicle travel in dense urban areas.

The report suggests road infrastructure, funding mechanisms, laws and the level of technological development and understanding are all barriers to quick adoption of a technology that would fundamentally change New Zealand, the report says.

AVs would increase accessibility for those unable to drive, increase road safety and capacity, reduce the cost of taxis and delivery and increase the demand for short-stay, on-street parking.

The technology may yield substantial economic, social, and environmental benefits, the report says.

Key questions include whether autonomous vehicles will complement or substitute existing transport modes, and the degree to which they will change where people choose to live and work.

Non-car transport modes will continue to play a role in New Zealand’s transport system, particularly as public transport modes have higher capacity and thereby help to meet peak mobility needs, the report says.

Parking buildings would be “repurposed into other higher value uses”.

The report doesn’t expect AVs to bring about city decline. “The benefits of proximity, which economists describe as agglomeration economies, are simply too strong. Cities will continue to have dense central areas surrounded by primarily residential suburbs.”

Demand for park-and-ride facilities is likely to reduce, while drop-off facilities may become more important, the report notes.

It suggests removing minimum parking requirements, adopting demand-responsive parking management, proving ways to book and pay for parking spaces in advance and making new public parking infrastructure compliant with building and housing regulations to allow their re-use for commercial or apartment buildings.