Vehicle sales forecasts good here, down in US

Vehicle sales in New Zealand and Australia are expected to continue to go well next year, but not in the US.

One growth area in all three countries is expected to be in electric vehicles.

US forecasters see 2018 new vehicle sales falling below 17 million for the first time in four years, Automotive News reports.

But a tax reform bill president Donald Trump has just signed into law could give the industry a boost.

For 2017, light-vehicle sales are set to be around 17.2 million, about 2% less than the record set last year. That would represent the industry’s first annual decline since 2009, officially ending its longest growth streak in a century, Automotive News says.

It suggests how far any further sales slide next year will go partly depends on how aggressively automakers discount vehicles to keep inventories manageable and showrooms busy.

“That period of growth that we had grown accustomed to is obviously over, and the industry is starting to right-size,” Edmunds industry analysis executive director Jessica Caldwell says. “We could see a fight for market share.”

Edmunds forecasts US sales of 16.8 million in 2018.

Cox Automotive expects the market to be 16.7 million, 100,000 more than it thought before the tax-reform bill was approved. Cox raised its used-vehicle forecast by 200,000 units, to 39.5 million, because of tax policy changes.

Toyota also expects 2018 will be in the “mid- to upper 16 million” range. The National Automobile Dealers Association projects sales of 16.7 million, which it says will still mark a great year for the industry.

“We are looking at a stable market where demand — particularly for light trucks, SUVs and crossovers — continues to be very healthy,” association chairman Mark Scarpelli says.

Sales are expected to grow in 2018 for hybrids and plug-in vehicles. They accounted for about 3% of sales in 2017 and could reach 4.4% next year, Edmunds says.

If Tesla Model 3 output reaches full strength by May, Edmunds says plug-in cars will likely outsell traditional hybrids such as the Toyota Prius by the end of 2018.