Remember the Jetsons?

This story first appeared in the March issue of EVtalk – CLICK HERE to download the magazine FREE

For some of us, it’s likely that cartoon shaped our early vision of the future – robots, interactive entertainment, automation on demand, self-driving flying transport.

Today, it almost sounds like the technology section of any modern mainstream news outlet.

In fact, top New Zealand articles are about drones making factories more efficient, drones used for inspecting structures to assure safety, people being racist toward robots, our smartphone addiction and the possibility of driverless buses.

New Zealand is even leading the way in the development of personal “jetpacks”.

One technology that is being aggressively developed globally is automated ground transport – autonomous cars. The challenge and promises of this technology are profound and have the capacity to fundamentally change how – and where – many of us live.

The greatest challenge in realising automated vehicles is the automated part. Developing a computational model of driving is a daunting task.
To illustrate, imagine having to write a single list of rules that covers every possible driving environment, situation and contingency. Now imagine that this list must produce results at least as good as human drivers.

The requirement will likely be much more stringent but that’s the minimum outcome supporting logical arguments for adoption.

Now – and this is really the artificial intelligence (AI) challenge we are trying to overcome – imagine having to develop a system that parses (analyses) an image picked up by camera and other sensors – radar, range finder, moisture detector, etc – into objects, conditions, characteristics and behavioural expectations.

Finally, imagine trying to integrate those two systems.

Most current solutions are solved by building maps that integrate as much data as possible so the vehicle must reference only the initial rule set.
Sensors can be dedicated to resolving safety conflicts. Due to the demands of this map, solutions are limited to specified geographic areas where information is managed.

We can and we have built these systems.

We do not have “everywhere, anytime” automated vehicles because even the “smartest” system fails when put in an environment with the completely unpredictable behaviours of humans and other entities that might share the roadway – at least to the level of success specified above.

That means the solution is either better tech, which we are working on, or changing the environment.

We could build a new restricted roadway system dedicated to such a network. What if I told you the cost of this roadway could be as low as free?
That’s where we return to the future envisioned in the Jetsons. In the cartoon, people zipped about in flying cars. We could define 3D corridors over our cities (at 100-200m altitude, for instance) for such vehicles – virtual motorways in the sky.

The motorways could be used by vehicles based on the drones that are becoming so pervasive.

A fleet of these vehicles, all EVs of course, would offer an alternative transport option. It’s an option that would not depend on roadways and would be immune to many of the frailties of our current infrastructure.

It would also open new areas for expansion, such as islands or otherwise geographically isolated areas. In Auckland, it could mean that Manukau Heads or even Coromandel become viable commuting options.

Commutes would be limited by distance “as the drone flies” as opposed to geographic features. In fact, the idea even opens the possibility of settlements where roads cannot be reasonably built or maintained.
Admittedly, there are challenges that must be overcome.

Drones for use in passenger transport are very much in their early design stages, engineering issues have to be overcome, safety options need to be explored, noise and other environmental effects need to be addressed and governments, enabling policy legislation/regulation, need to be prepared.
Well, that sounds more like an opportunity than a challenge.

It also provides an opportunity to rethink the design of our cities.

There are real risks involved as well. Control should be entirely out of the hands of humans except in extreme circumstances and the vehicles need to be maintained at the level of aircraft.

Degradation needs to be identified and impaired vehicles removed from the system until addressed.

Finally, and perhaps most importantly, we do not simply want to move the problems of road transport into the air. With enough vehicles, even 3D roadways could get congested.

The solution is simple – limit the system to public transport, a variety of drone “buses” of different sizes and some special purpose vehicles that serve the public good, such as ambulances and police.

The system would not be designed to replace current transport options, only augment them. Even if 10% of road users chose to use this option, it would make the road much more convenient for those who decide to ride in cars as well as those who were riding in feeder buses or other last mile options, making all public transport more efficient.

It is possible we will see automated drones as a transport option before we have level 5 autonomy on our roadways.

Maybe the next thing will be the Jetsons’ flying homes, a solution to our housing crisis?