EV li-ion battery shortage expected

A shortage of lithium-ion batteries is probable.

That’s according to IDTechEx chairman Dr Peter Harrop who says there are too few gigafactories, too many burning batteries and factories shutting to sort out their problems.

The US-China trade war cuts off materials and there’s inadequate lithium or cobalt mining, he adds.

“Electric vehicle demand is probably being underestimated.”

Harrop says cost parity with conventional cars can be expected in three to seven years when range demanded by most prospective buyers at 480km is also met.

IDTechEx 2020-2030 projections of battery capacity for all 100 IDTechEx EV categories reveals pent-up demand if promised cell cost reduction is met – a staggering 3900gWh in 2030, over double the committed 2028 global production.

“Every month a bigger commitment in gigafactories is announced, but we should plan for shortage.” Lithium-ion for grids has many alternatives – from flow batteries to pumped water.

See the IDTechEx report Batteries for Stationary Energy Storage 2019-2029 for more information.

Geely (Volvo etc) will partly use a supercapacitor for both 48V and full hybrids.

Toyota even showed an Auris full hybrid works fine with a supercapacitor, no battery, Harrop says. The economics of supercapacitor-powered large buses will improve despite shorter range meaning more charging, as explained in the IDTechEx reports Supercapacitors: Applications, Players, Markets 2020-2040 and Energy Storage for Buses and Trucks 2019-2029.

Faster market entry of no-cobalt and/or no-lithium batteries can be considered, but the safety and performance of solid-state batteries must progress to market, Harrop says.

Further information is in the IDTechEx reports Advanced Li-ion & Beyond Li-ion Batteries 2018-2028 and Solid-State and Polymer Batteries 2019-2029.

Top up charging of buses and trucks by rail-in-road, coils-in-road, intermittent catenary, solar bodywork and more will certainly come centre stage because it means up to 80% less battery, Harrop adds.

He believes HEVs with NiMH batteries like the Prius could return in strength.

“Revert to LFP li-ion without cobalt if that metal is the problem or buy more low-cobalt high-energy-density versions – Panasonic. There could be a halt to the progress of li-ion replacing lead-acid in mobility-for-the-disabled, two-wheelers and forklifts but turning the clock back usually means the planet is the loser,” Harrop says.

IDTechEx Events hosts Energy Storage Innovations – Disruptive technologies, materials and applications, on November 20-21 in Santa Clara, USA.