New EV powertrain could grab US$302 billion

The 48-volt full hybrid is a Prius killer, according to IDTechEx chair Dr Peter Harrop.

New research by IDTechEx in its report 48V Mild Hybrid and 48V Full Hybrid Vehicles 2020-2030 reveals the 48V mild hybrid powertrain is a done deal.

Started in 2016, now a flood of car models have this to keep them legal in the face of tightening emissions laws and save fuel, Harrop says.

Improvements in 48V mild hybrids will continue, Harrop believes.

“Next year the 48V repertoire will even expand to Ferrari, Volkswagen Golf, and family cars in China. None are electric vehicles because they never drive the wheels electrically, but it is now clear that they can be developed into just that. Previously thought impossible, 48V full hybrids are on the way and they will do more than replace conventional cars and a few buses and trucks.”

The report suggests 48V full hybrids promise to beat traditional hybrid EVs on price by a big margin.

A 48V full hybrid is going to grab around 10% of the total car market, the report says.

It will be “70% of an engine-dominant high-voltage hybrid’s benefits at 30% of the powertrain cost”.

“Overall, it will take around US$300 billion of the car business by displacing conventional vehicle business even more than traditional hybrid business.”

First sales are expected in 2020 and the first major deliveries in 2023.

Pioneers include Skoda experimenting with them for four years and Continental and Borg Warner offering a kit of 48V full hybrid parts to carmakers.

Great improvements in 48V full hybrids are discussed in the report, adding it could take the technology past 2030.

“That is possibly beyond the life in the marketplace of the traditional HEV and plug-in hybrid PHEV as they get throttled between 48V full hybrids on price and pure electric cars (including solar 1000km range versions) on performance and convenience.

“Indeed, it is now realised that incremental improvements to 48V full hybrid powertrains may possibly extend to such exotica as solar and supercapacitor bodywork, electricity producing suspension, autonomy and other features previously reserved for a pure electric end game.”