German Think Tank forecasts huge job losses

Germany’s federally-convened National Platform for the Future of Mobility (NPM) has released a report forecasting that up to 410,000 automotive sector jobs could be lost by 2030 due to electrification of the vehicle fleet.

CleanTechnica reports that the aim of the NPM is to develop paths that cross and link modes of transport for an environmentally friendly transport system that enables efficient, safe, resilient and affordable mobility in both passenger and goods transport.

“We think of mobility in a holistic and cross-modal way — to show ways in which our transport system in Germany can be shaped to become climate-friendly, sustainable and affordable in the future while ensuring Germany maintains competitiveness as a place of production,” says NPM steering committee chairman Henning Kagerman.

CleanTechnica

reports two employment study’s say the German auto industry would decline significantly by 2030. Those studies started with the assumption that 25% of all cars manufactured in Germany by that date would be electric, with another 15% being plug-in hybrids.

It says the latest projections now assume 30% of new cars will be battery electrics by 2030. Electric drivetrains have many less parts than internal combustion drivetrains and lend themselves to automated production. It also says 270,000 German workers make engines and transmissions. NAB estimates the switch to electric cars will reduce that number by about 88,000, according to a report by Handelsblatt.

CleanTechnica says in an extreme case, 410,000 jobs are at stake as mobility changes occur, 240,000 of them in vehicle construction alone, according to the NPM report.

Its says the NPM predictions are based on all the possible changes in mobility including more ride-hailing and ride-sharing platforms and more autonomous vehicles.

However, the German Association of the Automotive Industry (VDA) sharply disagrees with the NPM analysis. “The assumption that up to 410,000 jobs could be lost in the coming years is based on an unrealistic extreme scenario,” Kurt-Christian Scheel, its managing director, told Handelsblatt.

He challenges the NPM assumption that the majority of electric cars and batteries for the German market will come from foreign countries.
The VDA does agree there will be far fewer jobs in engine and transmission assembly.

The challenge is identifying new employment opportunities and restructuring business models, the NPM report suggests.

“In order for Germany to remain strong as an automotive production location and to provide employment, important value-added networks for the drive technology of the future such as batteries, power electronics, fuel cells must be maintained or built as completely as possible in Germany and its European environment,” Henning Kagerman told Handlesblatt.