COVID-19 causes blip in EV progress

Passenger EV sales will drop this year due to COVID-19 before rising again, Bloomberg NEF forecasts in its electric vehicle outlook (EVO) 2020.

BNEF attributes falling battery prices, improved energy density, more charging infrastructure and sales spread over new markets to helping boost EV uptake.

“By 2040 over half of all passenger vehicles will be electric,” it says, predicting price parity between EVs and internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles will achieved by the mid-2020s in most segments.

Shared mobility also took a hit during the pandemic as people switched back to private cars, but it is expected to bounce back and by 2040 shared mobility will represent 16% of all road kilometres travelled, BNEF says.

“The next 20 years will bring significant changes as electrification, shared mobility, vehicle connectivity and, eventually, autonomous vehicles reshape automotive and freight markets around the world,” the report executive summary says.

It adds that plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) will play a role over the next 10 years before fading as battery electric vehicles (BEVs) get cheaper.

Autonomous vehicles (AVs) will progress but won’t materially affect global travel patterns until the late 2030s, the report says.

The EV share of global sales in 2020 will be flat at about 3% but will rise to 7% in 2023 (about 5.4 million sales), it suggests.

The US will fall further behind leading EV markets in the next few years before catching up in the 2030s, Australia also likely to be in that situation.

EV launches will be delayed in the US but remain largely unchanged in Europe and China, the report adding the outlook for EVs is bright, especially in comparison to ICE passenger vehicle sales which have been declining since 2017.

The BNEF outlook also points to huge growth in e-mobility, particularly two and three-wheeled electric transport.

It adds that municipal buses are going electric quickly, accelerating further in the next 10 years, with delivery vans next to cross the tipping point.