Are EVs the automotive industry’s lifeline?

IDTechEx has issued a new automotive industry report called “Advanced Electric Cars 2020-2040” where it predicts that loss of consumer spending and closures of vehicle production in 2020 will lead to a 23% decline in new car sales.

The report says that things will not improve in the following decade 2030 to 2040.

It says the global car market will be blindsided by the rise of autonomous vehicles, which greatly reduces the need for private car ownership.

It is electric cars which will remain a beacon of growth, satisfying both the governmental drive to clean air in cities whilst also working more readily with autonomous vehicle technology says IDTechEx.

The report provides a long-term outlook for the car market and enabling technologies in the wake of COVID-19.

Forecasts and COVID-19 Impact

In the report, IDTechEx provide long-term forecasts to 2040 for electric passenger cars by region (China, US, UK, France, Germany, Norway, Netherlands, Denmark, RoW) and by powertrain (battery-electric, plug-in hybrid, fuel-cell).

Forecasts are presented in number of vehicles, battery demand (GWh) and market size ($ billion), with historic data back to 2015.

All forecasts are adjusted to reflect the impact of the global COVID-19 pandemic: amid economic uncertainty and unemployment, the auto industry has been one of the hardest hit as car purchases, typically the second largest consumer purchase (the first is a house), are now more difficult to justify ­for millions of consumers worldwide.

Li-ion Batteries

The IDTechEx report identifies and explains trends in Li-ion batteries for electric cars. For example, nickel content is increasing while cobalt content is decreasing: why is this important for automakers and the overall sustainability of the industry?

It also provides historic market data on the Li-ion technology mix based on our database of electric cars in top auto markets: China has phased-out LFP from over half its car market to less than 2% today; why will Tesla contradict this and adopt LFP for Model 3 sales in China?

Electric Traction Motors

All electric motors have the same purpose of converting electrical energy to mechanical energy, but there are many types of motors that derive their names from their construction, principles of operation, or even from the control technique employed on them.

The IDTechEx report explores why automakers are converging on permanent magnet motors, multiple motors, provide a benchmarking analysis of the different motor types, and finally, an outlook for how IDTechEx expects the motor market to evolve over the next ten years.

Autonomous Vehicle Technology

IDTechEx predicts that the rise of autonomous vehicles will have a profound impact on the global car market as it enables mobility-as-a-service to become cheaper than private-car ownership.

The report shows forecasts of autonomous passenger car miles, revealing how this will lead to a fundamental peak-car scenario. IDTechEx appraises the key underlying technologies such as LiDAR and camera-based systems: is the camera-only approach a high-risk gamble or a winning strategy that will be copied?

For more information on this report, please visit www.IDTechEx.com/Cars or for the full portfolio of Electric Vehicles research available please visit:  www.IDTechEx.com/Research/EV.

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