Reduced EV weight and cost predicted by 2030

Battery electric vehicles (BEVs) are poised to be the future of the auto industry, with reduced weight and materials cost factors.

So says Lux Research in a new report Electric Vehicle Lightweighting 2030, which analyses the future of vehicle lightweighting and necessary BEV success factors over the next decade.

In the past, lightweighting – or purposely designing more lightweight cars specifically for fuel efficiency – has been a key tool for improving the fuel economy of internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles.

However, the transition from ICE to BEVs changes both the goals and the design considerations around lightweighting.

“BEVs are overwhelmingly more efficient than ICE vehicles due to regenerative braking and more efficient motors and are increasingly outgrowing the issue of limited range,” Lux senior analyst Anthony Schiavo says.

“Materials companies need to start planning for a fully mature BEV space.”

The report expects there will only be modest changes to the materials used in vehicles over the next decade.

It also suggests increasing battery pack energy densities holds the key to future vehicle design.

Lux predicts that battery pack energy densities will increase by about 15% over the next decade. This increased energy density can be used to either extend a vehicle’s range by keeping battery size the same or reduce cost by shrinking the size of the battery pack.

In its analysis, Lux modelled both scenarios and calculated a lightweighting benchmark. Lux determined that for lightweighting to be a cost-effective solution against batteries by 2030, it will need to cost, on average, less than US$5 per kilogram of weight saved.

“This benchmark is not the only thing guiding lightweighting decisions,” cautions Schiavo. “To find adoption, materials companies and manufacturers will need to find solutions that save on both weight and cost.

“We predict vehicle structure will be an opportunity for high-strength steel and aluminum, as they provide weight reductions at minimal cost,” Schiavo continues.

“Bumpers are expected to benefit from design advancements that utilise glass fibre, carbon fibre, and thermoplastics.

“Other material priorities, such as sustainability, durability, and end-of-life issues, however, will take priority over lightweighting by 2030.”

Lux finds there’s far more risk of disruption from improving energy storage technologies – which could substantially outstrip forecast improvements by 2030 – than there is from new innovations in materials.