A quarter of planes sold in 2045 will be BEVs, says IDTechEx

About 24% of planes sold in 2045 will be battery-electric powered.

So says IDTechEx in its report Sustainable Future Aviation 2025-2045: Trends, Technologies, Forecasts.

It highlights the scale of the challenges faced by electric aviation, with weight, range, ownership costs, and even carbon footprint all needing consideration.

IDTechEx believes current technical trends combined with achievable business use cases will generate significant electric plane uptake in the future.

Energy density is the main challenge when building an electric airplane, says IDTechEx principal technology analyst Dr James Jeffs.

Traditional fuels like AV Gas are exceptionally energy-dense at around 43MJ/kg or 12kWh/kg when the best battery technologies today are about 0.3kWh/kg, meaning they are 40 times heavier for the same amount of energy, he says.

“Thankfully, electric propulsion is much more efficient than internal combustion, which helps to offset this deficit, but not enough.

‘Electric planes end up being heavier than their internal combustion rivals while also having significant range reductions, typically in the range of 80-90% less.”

In addition to heavy batteries, the intense usage they will experience in an airplane application will likely shorten their usable life span, says Jeffs.

“This creates a cost of ownership issue. While owners will save considerably on fuel, they will likely need to replace the battery more often than they service and replace engines.

“Not only is the replacement rate higher, but the cost is also likely to be higher while electric aircraft and certified batteries are produced in such small numbers.

“Finally, owners will also have to consider the carbon impact of running an electric plane.

“Operating an electric plane in a European country with a clean energy mix would reduce CO2 by more than 90%. However, in the US, where lots of fossil fuel is still used to produce electricity, the reduction is only 56%.”

New and emerging battery chemistries could more than double the energy density of batteries for aviation, while modifications to the airframe could allow greater battery weights, says IDTechEx.

“Larger batteries also mean less intense use, which, combined with further battery development, will deliver longer cycle lives and better OpEx and TCO benefits.

“Renewable energy production is growing across the globe, providing better access to low-carbon energy supply.”

Two-seat planes with a flight endurance of one hour can be built today, says IDTechEx, adding small two- and four-seat planes have a broad selection of uses from passenger transport in island hopping to crop dusting.

Basic pilot training starts in two-seat general aviation planes, with lessons typically an hour long, with IDTechEX expecting flying schools to take on electrification.

Tourism flights could take on electrification or hopping between islands and the mainland in remote regions, it suggest.

Commercial airliners will also use battery electric power in the future, but IDTechEx thinks that when ranges get up to the 500-1000km then there is a better argument for electrifying commercial airliners

For bigger journeys, the industry will have to turn to hydrogen and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) to decarbonise, says IDTechEx.