BEV and FCEV trains market to grow 21% in 10 years

Battery electric (BEV) and hydrogen fuel cell (FCEV) locomotive, multiple unit (BMU) and shunter trains are set to increase markedly in the next 10 years.

So says IDTechEx in its report Battery Electric & Hydrogen Fuel Cell Trains 2023-2043.

Rail networks already largely consist of electric trains ‘tethered’ to electric overhead and live rail systems, it says.

“However, this is not feasible everywhere due to the high infrastructure cost/mile, remote geographic locations, and the practicality of building through tunnels and bridges.

‘For these stretches of track, rail OEMs and operators currently rely on diesel fuel – which is their number two cost. Use of diesel cannot continue forever in any market, and multiple rail OEMs and operators believe the time is now to transition towards zero emission rail technologies.”

The IDTechEx report shows demand for untethered electric trains will increase rapidly over coming years as rail OEMs seek to reduce high diesel costs and follow broad climate goals such as the Paris Agreement and ‘Fit for 55’ in Europe.

Industry momentum has been building through the rapid advancement of lithium-ion battery technology, with systems now capable of reaching the multi mega-watt hour (MWh) level in confined carriage spaces.

Systems up to about 14.5MWh are being installed today in the largest trains, known as battery electric (BEV) locomotives, or BELs.

In the future, the vast energy requirements of rail will eventually lead to some of the largest traction battery deployments across all EV markets – potentially beyond 20MWh per train, says the report. “Improvements in battery energy density and charging technology is expected to increase over the forecast period, but even then, the longest-range requirements will create some opportunities for green hydrogen fuel cells.”

IDTechEx assesses global opportunities emerging for BEV and FCEV trains as diesel use declines and energy storage technologies advance rapidly.

Granular 20-year forecasts include train deliveries, battery demand (GWh), fuel cell demand (MW) and market value across locomotives, multiple units, and shunter trains.

The cost evolution of railroad batteries, fuel cells and green hydrogen is also explored to assess the long-term feasibility of each solution, drawing from primary research across multiple company interviews.

Initial rail electrification will be led by multiple units (MU), which are trains used for passenger operations, says the report.

Electrification longer term will be led by locomotives, it adds.

“Mainline locomotives are largely commercial and industrial freight trains, although this varies between key electrification regions such as the US, Europe, and China.”

Locomotives have a larger addressable market than multiple units, and since they are larger and more expensive vehicles often with long range requirements requiring MWh battery systems.