Declining government EV support globally noted in report

Global EV sales hit nearly 10 million (9.97m) last year, and government support for EVs is starting to decline in spite of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) forecast to reach 17.5% share in 2024.

That’s according to Savvy’s new report Global Electric Vehicle Sales – A Review of The Industry which analyses EV sales data from PwC – Strategy& and S&P Global to see how many vehicles were sold in different key markets around the world and which models were most popular in 2023.

China passed two million EVs and the US reached a million while new battery tech promises to combat range anxiety, with Chinese firm Nio offering a 1000km battery from April this year, the report says.

About 60% of EV owners globally are interested in buying used, creating a new market opportunity, it adds.

Annualised EV growth of 28% featured across all analysed markets by PwC in its Electric Vehicle Sales Review 2024, says Savvy.

S&P Global predicts 88.3 million car (passenger or light commercial vehicle) sales worldwide in 2024, with a battery EV share of 17.5% – an increase of 39.5%, it says.

“However, the transition to EVs may not be as inevitable as one thinks,” says Savvy, adding that in spite of upward growth in EV sales national governments are beginning to roll back incentives on EV uptake (citing the scrapping of New Zealand’s Clean Car Discount among examples), as well as imposing protectionist policies to shield domestic manufacturing instead of relying on cheaper imports.

The report says the European Union (EU) and United Kingdom are also investigating a 10% tariff on Chinese-produced vehicles, as the Chinese Communist Party government subsidises the manufacture of EVs which means they can be sold cheaply in the EU, leaving European manufacturers at a competitive disadvantage.

S&P global projects global sales for battery electric passenger vehicles to reach 13.3 million units for 2024 – accounting for an estimated 16.2% of global passenger vehicle sales.

Last year, Savvy’s survey of Australian consumers showed 51% of 1000 adults surveyed said that a lack of charging infrastructure was a major barrier to EV entry, as was reduced driving range (39%) compared to internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles.

A push for the cheaper and more reliable sodium-ion EV battery technology to surpass lithium-ion is expected.

Another innovation produced in a joint venture between Volvo and Polestar manufacturer Geely and Chinese firm Nio is the battery swapping station, which dispenses with long charging times by removing a depleted battery and substituting it for a full one instead of waiting for the original battery to charge, the report notes.

Interestingly, EVs depreciated in price 10% more than comparable ICE vehicles, with budget models losing the most value over time, the report satys.

The Teska Model Y is the top EV model across the world’s biggest markets, taking out the highest selling position in Europe’s top four economies (Germany, France, Italy, Spain), the United States, and China.

The Tesla Model 3 was second among the Euro four and US, with the BYD Yuan Plus landing second spot in China, while the third most popular EV in the Euro four was the Fiat 500e; the Chevrolet Bolt in the US; and the BYD Dolphin in China.

New EV launches this year include the Renault 5, MI SU7, and IM L5 launching in the first quarter of 2024, BYD’s Sealion 07,  Cadillac releasing the Symboliq and Dodge offering the Daytona in the second quarter with Q3  expected to see Maruti-Suzuki’s eVX and VinFast’s VF3, and the Jeep Recon, Lingxi L, and Venucia Star EV all available by the year’s end.

EV sales growth has continued in all major markets (Western Europe, China, and the US) with 2.025 million units sold in December 2023, a year-on-year increase of 26%. The year-to-date sales figures topped 18.17 million, an increase of 31% year-on-year.

The S&P Global Mobility Light Vehicle Powertrain forecasts a 128% increase in Global Electrified Vehicle Assembly between 2023 and 2028 (forecasted) with full hybrids and mild hybrids expected to grow by 62%. BEV assembly is tipped to grow by a staggering 234%, with PHEV assembly forecasted to grow by 69%.

The report says manufacturers such as Acura, Audi, Ford, Honda, and Polestar have announced new EV models for launch through to 2026, while Hyundai has promised an iteration on its hugely popular Ioniq 4 and 8 in 2026, with new Polestar marques coming in succession over 2025-2027.