EV markets and tech toward 2023

A free webinar on EV markets and technology on the road to 2023 will be presented by IDTechEx principal technology analyst Luke Gear on Wednesday November 30.

Electric car markets, hydrogen, trends and heavy-duty EV development will be covered in the webinar Electric Vehicles 2022 EOY Round-up: Record Road Sales, Emerging Electric Motors & Hydrogen Fuel-cell Opportunities.

Meanwhile, Gear says it’s been another momentous year for EV markets and technologies, with major policy developments, sales growth, and landmark models set to enter the market.

He points to China’s record EV sales approaching five million a year.

“The dual-credit system – two types of credit that must be accumulated to avoid penalties – is a primary driver,” says Gear.

“Although impressive, the results are not perfect. Much of this has been achieved with sales of small and micro cars, an artificial result that reduces pressure for supply chains but is ultimately not the consumer preference,” Gear explains.

“A shift towards affordable versions of larger vehicles will be needed as policy drivers fully phase out in the coming years – a more difficult task.”

 China’s success is leading to cross-pollination with other parts of the world, which could be key for mainstream EV adoption, Gear adds.

“Indeed, BYD and NIO have announced plans to sell EV models in Europe soon. The biggest hurdle to this may be political. The EU has a history of banning low-cost (or undercutting) EV imports from China, for example, a tariff of up to 83% was applied to e-bikes at the start of the craze a few years ago.”

The EU confirmed a landmark internal combustion engine (ICE) ban for 2035, later saying that e-fuels will be banned for cars and light commercial vehicles (vans).

The ruling further cements battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) as the lynchpin of future road transport markets, says Gear.

The ban represents about 10 million electric car sales annually by 2035. Given EU countries sold around 1.8 million electric cars in 2021, the targets, which are over a decade away, look achievable, Gear adds.

The US market gained momentum with the modernisation of its federal tax credit for EVs, which is part of the broader Inflation Reduction Act.

The incentive is designed to build a more localised supply chain – good for the long term but it may mean it will be several years before the policy has an impact on market growth, says Gear.

He believes the emerging passenger truck market is the key US trend to watch.

“Ford’s electric F150 was launched with overwhelming success, GM’s similarly priced Silverado is poised to enter the market in 2023, and GM’s luxury Hummer EV is sold out for two years.

“While Tesla currently has around 50% of the US EV car market, its share has declined slightly in recent years.”

As Tesla prioritises battery supply for the Model 3 and Model Y, IDTechEx expects passenger truck models to become significant drivers for US sales.

IDTechEx’s report expects the capacity of current and future giga factories will be enough to support 36 million BEVs annually by 2030, but uncertainty lies ahead, particularly with lithium, Gear believes. “What is becoming clear is the downsizing of battery capacities per vehicle while maintaining vehicle ranges will be key.”

Improving drive cycle efficiency means less of the precious energy stored in the battery is wasted when accelerating the vehicle, leading to improved range from the same battery capacity (or the same range with reduced battery capacity). Upcoming electric motors and power electronics technologies are key avenues for this, Gear explains.

The emerging trend for 800V platforms and above is in full swing, with GM, Hyundai, and VW undergoing a transition alongside start-ups such as Lucid Motors.

The 800V platforms improve efficiency by reducing joule losses and allowing high voltage cabling to be downsized, saving weight, with new technologies and materials enabling the transition – IDTechEx report Power Electronics for Electric Vehicles 2022-2032.

The EV market has adopted several different solutions, including permanent magnets, induction, and wound-rotor motors.

Key emerging motor technologies are axial flux and in-wheel motors.

Markets today are small, but IDTechEx expects increases in demand over the next 10 years, with first applications in high-performance vehicles, shuttle buses, and certain hybrid applications. Visit IDTechEx’s report Wireless Charging Market for Electric Vehicles 2023-2033: Technology, Players and Forecasts

EV charging installations increased in 2022, China leading the race with more than 1.5 million public charging points, says Gear.

“However, perhaps the most significant charging news of 2022 is the EU considering a landmark proposal to set new mandatory installation targets – for cars, there must be at least one electric charging pool every 60km along main EU roads by 2026.“

The move will help support the nine million electric cars IDTechEx expects to be sold annually in Europe by 2030.

Battery swapping is an emerging alternative to public fast charging, wherein depleted batteries are replaced entirely in under five minutes.

The IDTechEx report on battery swapping includes forecasts which show the growth to more than 55,000 swap stations globally in 10 years.

“Buses will charge at bus stops, taxis in taxi ranks, and autonomous cars in public garages, all without ever having to be plugged in,” says Gear.

IDTechEx’s latest charging report Wireless Charging Market for Electric Vehicles 2023-2033: Technology, Players and Forecasts covers the technology, players, and deployments in this emerging market, with next year a major one for developments within the wireless charging market as pilot projects end and commercial rollout begins.

Operators of non-road mobile machinery in the construction, mining, and agricultural sectors must also decarbonize if companies and countries are to meet their net zero emissions goals, says Gear.

See IDTechEx’s report Electric Vehicles in Construction 2022-2042 for more information.