Half the world’s bus fleet electric in seven years

Electric bus numbers will triple by 2025.

The number of e-buses is predicted to go from 386,000 last year to around 1.2 million in seven years – about 47% of the world’s bus fleet, Bloomberg New Energy Finance reports.

“China will lead this market, due to strong domestic support and aggressive city-level targets,” study author Aleksandra O’Donovan says. It will account for 99% of battery buses by 2025, the report says.

Electric buses are more expensive to get than conventional buses, but BNEF says battery buses can already provide a lower total cost of ownership when fuel and maintenance expenses are considered. Projected battery price declines will make upfront costs of some electric models competitive with diesel versions by 2026, the study says.

As public buses have fixed routes it makes them ideal for electrification. Cities increasingly see electric buses helping reduce air pollution. Paris and Amsterdam are among those aiming to switch to zero-emission buses, for instance.

The Warren Buffett-backed BYD Co., China’s largest seller of EVs, could take advantage of its government push. Last year, BYD sold 128,000 new-energy vehicles (full electric and hybrids) in China compared with 100,183 in 2016.

Its buses now operate in 200 cities worldwide.