Li-ion battery recycling forecast to reach 23.8m tonnes in 20 years

About 23.8 million tonnes of li-ion batteries will be recycled by 2043, equivalent to NZ$166.36 billion (US$101b) in valuable metals.

So says IDTechEx in its report Li-ion Battery Recycling Market 2023-2043, explaining that lithium-ion batteries dominate EVs and consumer electronics markets and are expected to be the main battery technology used in stationary energy storage.

However, the sustainability of li-ion batteries relies on their entire lifecycle management, including at end-of-life (EOL). Furthermore, the availability of raw materials such as cobalt is becoming a growing concern, says a report by Conrad Nichols and Dr Alex Holland.

“By recycling li-ion batteries, it is possible to recover the embedded value of battery metals and establish a circular supply chain, creating revenues and allowing battery manufacturers to shield themselves against volatile commodity prices of battery materials,” they explain.

“Stakeholders involved in the li-ion battery supply chain are recognising the potential of recycling, and the li-ion battery recycling market is projected to grow significantly over the next 20 years.”

 Companies are preparing for the growing availability of waste li-ion batteries, the two say.

“The past year has seen a growing number of investments in li-ion battery recycling companies, as well as the forming of new joint ventures (JVs) between recyclers and battery manufacturers.

“Some of these strategic partnerships will see battery manufacturers providing recyclers with recycling feedstock. This will promote a more consistent and stable supply of feedstock directly to recyclers, while allowing battery manufacturers to keep some of their valuable battery materials within a closed loop circular supply chain.”

The report sees this starting to reduce reliance on mining for raw materials, which also brings environmental benefits, adding other JVs are establishing plans for constructing new recycling facilities.

Most recycling feedstock comes from cell manufacturing scrap, much of this in China.

Most consumer electronics batteries are not recycled, due to the difficulty in collecting these., the report notes.

“However, it will be easier to establish collection networks for EOL EV batteries. Extended producer responsibility (EPR) in several countries mandates that the original equipment manufacturer (OEM) is responsible for the collection of retired EV batteries for recycling.”

 The IDTechEx report notes recyclers have started to strategically co-locate their facilities near cell manufacturing facilities to reduce feedstock transportation costs.

 From data analysis on 80 li-ion battery recyclers worldwide, IDTechEx reports on multiple commercial-scale recycling plants planned across key regions over the next few years, as well as up-to-date mechanical, hydrometallurgical and pyrometallurgical process descriptions, and developments in direct recycling techniques.

 Without an efficient battery collection network, the current lower volume of batteries to be recycled or high cost of collection could hinder economical battery recycling, says IDTechEx.

“Due to EV batteries lacking design standardisation across OEMs, battery pack disassembly is a complex procedure which requires a skilled workforce to perform this safely.

“Another issue is that the value of $/kWh within EV batteries is expected to be lower in comparison to consumer electronics batteries. This implies that recyclers will need to extract a greater amount of material at higher levels of purity and efficiency to make their recycling process economically viable.”

Whether to recycle or repurpose retired EV batteries for second-life applications such as stationary energy storage is another key topic explored in the report.

 EVs are split into electric cars, light commercial vehicles, trucks, buses and two-wheelers (scooters and motorcycles).