The battery bottleneck and other EV issues

This story first appeared in the December issue of EVtalk – CLICK HERE to download the magazine FREE

EV advocates don’t like what they hear from Colin Herron – but that doesn’t mean they disagree with what he says.

A controversial keynote speaker at the Net Carbon Neutral Towns conference held in conjunction with the EVworld South expo in Christchurch, the managing director of Zero Carbon Futures in the United Kingdom didn’t pull any punches.

His warnings include looming EV shortages in many countries, an EV battery bottleneck, China swallowing most the world’s EV production in the next three or four years, and a likely shortfall in EV targets in New Zealand and elsewhere.

So why are all these dire predictions coming from an EV supporter who’s spent most of his life in the automotive industry, whose business is based on EVs and who has been in the EV space from the very beginning?
“I’m a complete realist about it,” Herron says.

He admits many don’t like what he says, but adds they usually agree.

Forecasting an EV supply shortage here and in many other countries, Herron says China’s targets for automotive manufacturers mean most EV production will be absorbed by the country for the next few years.

“There’s also not enough EV battery production at the moment to keep up with EV uptake.
We’re already at a battery bottleneck.

“If the batteries are not there the cars won’t be made.
The reality is that the batteries will go to where the profit is – which is mainly in China,” Herron says.

“So we’ll see plenty of EVs in China and not a lot elsewhere.”
Herron says EVs still only comprise a small proportion of the world’s vehicles.

And he says there’s little point in putting in a massive EV charging infrastructure in most countries because there won’t be enough EVs to make full use of it.
Even then, many EV owners in countries like New Zealand, which has significant home and garage ownership, tend to charge at home rather than out and about.

Herron suggests finding out how many EV owners use charging stations outside of the home.

“When more than 90% are using them and you have ‘charge rage’ then it’s probably time to put in more.”
Politicians’ talk of emissions targets, EV goals and the like tend to be “a lot of BS”, Herron adds.

He says many dates set by cities for emission bans and reductions are unrealistic – and that it will take longer than most think.

He believes New Zealand is unlikely to meet its 64,000 EV goal by the end of 2021, even though current numbers are more than doubling every year.
That’s because Herron expects the drive will stall somewhat in coming years.

“What do you do with the diesel vehicles around?” he asks.

“If you kill diesel, carbon dioxide will go up.
Diesel produces a lot of particulate matter – so do you want to choke or boil?” he says of climate change.

“My advice is to be realistic.
Do what you can do, and base any decisions on reality.”
Herron suggests encouraging more people to use public transport first, and switching more public transport such as buses and trains to electric.

“New Zealand to me is similar to Ireland, in that everything has to bypass bigger markets first.

“If Australia decides it wants EVs then why ship them past there ?”
And while hydrogen is useful for trucks and other machinery needing longer range or running times, Herron warns against using the alternative fuel in cars.
He says there’s not the infrastructure or production in place to service hydrogen fuel cell passenger cars.

People are also switching to multiple forms of transport.

Herron himself leases a 30kWh Nissan Leaf to use from his Newcastle home, but uses trains when appropriate and will even hire a diesel for a few days to travel the length of Britain because of the convenience and range.

That Herron knows what he’s talking about is a certainty.

After being “thrown out of school” at 17, Herron served an apprenticeship in a company making rubber components for Ford.

He spent 17 years with Nissan in the UK as an engineer and was seconded by the company to local government, later serving as a go-between with Nissan Japan and the British government.

“The most bizarre moment came when I was waiting for a letter from British prime minister Gordon Brown, then went to the British Embassy where I handed the letter to two Nissan board members.
Then the government changed and all the power went back to Whitehall.”
He opened a small company specialising in EVs, particularly around product knowledge and education.

Nissan wanted charging infrastructure in the UK, so Herron’s company put in a complete network in the north-east of England and he became a consultant to London mayor Sadiq Khan for a whole of London strategy.

He’s also run workshops in major cities like Manchester, Sheffield and Cardiff, and is an honorary professor of transport at Newcastle University where he lectures.

Herron tested one of the first Nissan Leafs in Japan when it was camouflaged as a Tiida.

“So I’ve been in and out of the car industry for 45 years,” Herron adds.

The week before Herron came to New Zealand to address the Christchurch conference and run a workshop there, he received a CBE from Prince Charles at Buckingham Palace.

The Queen’s Birthday honour was for Herron’s service to business and renewable energy.