EV powertrain materials US$47b by 2030

The meteoric rise of traction batteries and motors in EVs will lead to much greater demand for several materials markets which otherwise would see only modest growth.

Lithium-ion batteries alone, for instance, also need a great deal of nickel, cobalt, aluminum, lithium, copper, insulation, thermal interface materials and more at the cell and pack level, says IDTechEx report Materials for Electric Vehicles 2020-2030.

It identifies and analyses trends in EV battery cell and pack-level materials, and electric traction motor materials, to determine the overall materials demand.

IDTechEx forecasts the EV powertrain materials market to reach US$47 billion by 2030 with more than 28 materials used in their construction.

A rapid increase in demand is seen across several material markets after a small drop in 2020 due to COVID-19 implications for the automotive market.

Several of the raw materials used in EV components have questionable mining practices or volatile supply chains, leading OEMs to change the way they make batteries and motors.

A commonly used cathode material, cobalt, is very expensive with its supply and mining confined to mainly China and the Democratic Republic of Congo, the report says.

As a result, OEMs are trending towards the use of higher nickel cathode chemistries such as NMC 622 and even NMC 811.

Another significant trend is the phase-out of lithium iron phosphate (LFP) cathodes, used in the Chinese EV market up until 2018. In 2019 only 3% of new cars were using LFP, however, the introduction of the Tesla Model 3 in China using LFP could upset this trend, the report suggests.

Despite the reduction in the market share of materials like cobalt, the rapidly increasing market for EVs will drive demand for cobalt and many other materials drastically higher over the next 10 years, the report says.

With manufacturers improving battery designs, the mass of materials being used around the cells is steadily being reduced allowing for a lighter battery pack or more cells to be used for the same mass.

This can be largely affected by the choice of material for the enclosure, with OEMs becoming more interested in composite utilisation.

The thermal management strategy also has a significant impact. This includes the choice of active or passive cooling variants, thermal interface materials, thermal runaway prevention and fire-retardant materials.

With greater energy density and consumer demand for fast charging, more effective thermal management is required in a smaller and lighter package.

IDTechEx considered more than 150 battery-electric (BEV) and plug-in hybrid (PHEV) cars sold between 2015-2019 to show trends in energy density by thermal management strategy and by year.

Demand for electric traction motors will increase rapidly over the next 10 years, not just from the overall vehicle sales but also with the rise of vehicles using more than one motor, specifically in premium cars and heavy-duty vehicles, the report forecasts.

Critical to materials, the majority of the EV market is using motors with permanent magnet-based rotors which typically contain several rare earths such as neodymium and dysprosium, both of which have a very geographically constrained supply chain and a volatile price history.

While they are in a relatively small quantity in the motor, they can make up a very significant portion of the motor’s cost.

“We are seeing some manufacturers like Renault using motors with no magnets, whereas Tesla has transitioned to a magnet-based motor for the potential improvements in efficiency which can increase range and hence, reduce the requirements for other critical battery materials.”

Another key question in motor design comes from recyclability, including removal of expensive, critical materials used in the magnets or windings.

“Most current designs do not take this into account and, whilst we are seeing some manufacturers switching to motors with less expensive or easier to recycle raw materials, the vast majority of the market is focussing on incremental improvements to the efficiency of current designs.”