EVs a trillion dollar market in ten years: report

Electric vehicles will be a trillion dollar market in about ten years.

That’s according to an IDTechEx overview report, Electric Vehicles 2018-2038: Forecasts, Analysis and Opportunities.

It explains the coming changes in the automotive industry and predicts fuel cell and non-plug-in vehicles will be side-lined.

“The report shows that if, as is likely, the new 48V mild hybrids forecasted acquire EV modes of operation within ten years, the total EV market will approach one trillion dollars,” IDTechEx chairman Dr Peter Harrop says.

“The little-discussed 48V mild hybrids appeared for the first time in volume in 2017,” he says. “But they rapidly exceed the volume sales of the much-discussed strong hybrid and pure EVs combined over many future years, until we track pure electric versions dominating.

“We spell out how EVs leveraging navigational autonomy and/or energy independence will hugely assist the young, the old and emerging nations in particular.”

Harrop says the company has for 20 years surveyed the whole EV scene, and that the next 20 “will make all that seem just a taster. Industries will collapse but certain countries, companies and users will prosper.”

Energy independent electric vehicles (EIVs) will become more important than the much-discussed autonomy of navigation that many of them will employ, Harrop says.

“EIVs lead us to totally different key enabling technologies and different winners and losers.”
Harrop says the report shows how EIV hardware will be a bigger business than autonomy hardware.

New sectors such as electric motorcycles and micro EVs (e-cycles and more) are no longer being ignored, he says.

“In this industry, nothing is quite as it seems. Car sales will peak within 15 years for many reasons that are detailed. We identify peak internal combustion engine too, but most industrial and commercial vehicles will see no easing of growth rate for reasons given in the report – they will power past 65% of the market – more than double that of cars.”

Harrop says attention is turning away from the declining share of cost and function represented by batteries to the increasing share from power electronics, adding many new power technologies.

“However, a major focus of this overview report is the vehicles themselves from personal manned multi-copters to e-buses straddling traffic – showing the gaps in the market.
“This report prioritises commercial success factors and it provides detailed statistics to support informed action plans.”

A league table of the top 13 manufacturers of hybrid and pure electric EVs land, water and air has many famous names absent and little-known names included.

“The key enabling technologies for the future are changing radically, with multiple reversing motor generators and multiple energy harvesting, including multiple electrical recuperation among those coming to the fore.”

The report includes 390 slides, new forecasts in 46 categories and 20-year technological roadmaps.