EVs exceed ICE in NZ within 30 years?

Electric vehicles could comprise as high as 74% of New Zealand’s light vehicle fleet by 2050, the latest Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment (MBIE) three-yearly report on the energy market reveals.

And the July report was made before the Government’s announcement of its proposed ‘clean car’ plan which includes a ‘feebate’ scheme to promote uptake of low and zero emission vehicles.

MBIE predicts the EV figure will be 44% based on present trends but forecasts the higher number where autonomous vehicles, lower EV battery prices and other technology changes are faster than expected.

The report also expects about $12 billion of investment could be needed in renewable power such as wind farms to meet increased power demand, which includes EV charging, and to compensate for closure of fossil-fuel power plants, Stuff says.

MBIE forecasts about 22% of homes will produce their own solar power by 2050 and that around 6300 megaWatts of additional generating capacity will be needed.

The number of homes with solar power will grow from 21,000 today to more than 500,000 by 2050, making solar generation “one of the major sector trends over the next few decades”, according to government projections.

The report

predicts petrol sales for internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles will start to fall steadily from 2020, dropping by 47% by 2050.

Energy sector greenhouse gas emissions will drop 28% to nearly 24 million tonnes of carbon dioxide-equivalent under the reference scenario, possibly falling by 48% to under 17m tonnes if technology progress is quicker than expected.

MBIE forecasts the amount of electricity generated by renewables could rise from 82% to about 96% by 2050.

Wholesale electricity prices are likely to remain the same, aided by the declining cost of renewables.

More frequent energy modelling is planned by MBIE because of the pace of change.