Global EV sales stay strong

About 4.3 million new battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrids (PHEVs) were delivered during the first half of 2022, a 62% increase compared to the same time last year.

The regional growth pattern is shifting though.

“Following two years of steep sales increases in Europe, EVs gained only 9% over 2021 H1 there,” EV-volumes reports.

“Weak overall vehicle markets and persistent component shortages have taken their toll, exacerbated by the war in Ukraine. EV sales in USA and Canada increased by 49% for H1 year-on-year, despite a weak overall light vehicle market which plunged by 17 % during H1 y/y.”

Robust increases of EV sales enabled nearly all OEMs to grow their sales in 2022-H1. Global EV deliveries increased by 62% y/y in total – OEMs with higher growth have increased their share in the EV sector.

The Tesla Model Y is the top seller, not only in the EV sector but within all SUVs and crossovers in this category, EV-volumes expecting the Model Y to reach 700,000 this year with current selling rates.

The Tesla Model 3 is next, although Tesla prioritised production of the more sought after and more profitable Model Y, EV-volumes explains.

China new energy vehicle (NEV) sales increased by a 113% for the first half of this year.

BYD more than quadrupled sales to 641,000 units, topping the global sales ranking if its 315,000 PHEV sales are included.

Counting BEVs only, Tesla still leads by a wide margin with 565,000 units delivered in H1, says EV-volumes, pointing out that the global PHEV share is declining due to incentive cuts and improving BEV offers.

PHEVs stood for 27% of global plug-in sales in 2022 H1 compared to 29% in 2021.

Sales growth is increasingly depending on the degree of electrification, says EV-volumes.

“While BEVs grew by 75% and PHEVs by 37%, non-chargeable full hybrids grew by 14% and mild hybrids backed by -7% y-o-y H1. ICE-only vehicle sales declined by 16%. Total global light vehicle sales were down 8% y/y for H1-2022.”

Rapid EV adoption in weak auto markets has boosted EV shares further, EV-volumes adds.

“Norway had the highest market share of EVs in H1 (BEVs 69% and PHEVs 8%), China had 21%, Europe 18% and USA 6.5%. The fastest growing markets were India with 20,700 units BEV and PHEV for H1 (273%) and New Zealand with 8300 units (260%).”

EV-volumes says that for all 2022 it expects sales of 10.6 million EVs, a 57% increase on 2021, with BEVs reaching eight million units and PHEVs 2.6 million units.

“By the end of 2022 we expect nearly 27 million EVs in operation, counting light vehicles, 70% are BEVs and 30% PHEVs. Sales of fuel cell vehicles (FCEV) in the light vehicle sector have declined by 9% so far and are below 20,000 units annually. Current sales are from five vehicle models and most sales are in South Korea and USA. We estimate their current population to ca 55,000 units.”

EV-volumes says global light vehicle markets are contracting again, but it expects small gains for H2 as numbers compare to the depressed sales of 2021 H2.

“China is among the few exceptions, but with extreme volatility: a 24% increase y/y in February was followed by a -45% crash during the April lockdowns and a 30% boom in June and July, amid swift Government support.

”Western auto sales are facing a double dip, post-COVID, with supply constraints soon to be joined by demand constraints as central banks try to combat inflation by interest rate hikes. The result is, much likely, a further delay in market recovery.

“EV sales held up well in this environment: while global light vehicle sales lost 8.1%, BEVs and PHEVs increased by 62% for H1.”

EV-volumes predicts new all-time-highs in EV sales will be common during the second half of this year.