Home deliveries boost electric LCVs

Global sales of electric light commercial vehicles (e-LCVs) are expected to exceed 2.4 million units annually by 2030 following a surge in home deliveries during COVID-19.

The pandemic forced shoppers online, driving huge home delivery demand which has the potential to grow further post COVID, IDTechEx tech analyst Dr David Wyatt says.

LCVs are the backbone of this growing demand for delivery infrastructure, a report Electric Light Commercial Vehicles 2020-2030

suggests.

Restrictions on movement and the resulting decrease in road traffic have seen air pollution fall dramatically in cities around the world, Wyatt says.

“This has provided demonstrable evidence to policymakers of the benefit for urban environments when internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles do not run and puts wind in the sales of electric vehicle OEMs.”

Overall, the new LCV market in Europe contracted by 36.4% in the first five months of 2020, and EVs’ higher upfront price puts them at a disadvantage – but Wyatt sees that all changing.

Volvo chief executive Håkan Samuelsson believes the pandemic will accelerate the move to EVs and that government support to promote the industry should prioritise this sector rather than subsidising old technologies.

OEMs are under pressure to keep to vehicle emission targets, and have already invested in electric powertrain development.

A key driver is falling battery prices, which brings a stronger TCO advantage for LCVs (versus cars) which typically run more continuously throughout the day and therefore benefit from greater fuel savings, Wyatt says.

Evidence suggests daily range requirements can already be met with current e-LCV technologies, and for fleets operating around a central hub, charging strategies can be devised that optimise the vehicle battery size, he explains.

“While range anxiety may be a concern for car owners, this should not be the case for commercial fleet operators. Their concern should instead be choosing the vehicle that reliably meets their daily duty cycle requirements, whilst not carrying unnecessary battery weight that impacts on the vehicle’s kWh/km efficiency and operational cost.”

With a slew of new electric van models set to hit the market in Europe in 2020, including the Mercedes eSprinter, Citroen e-Dispatch, Toyota Proace, and Vauxhall Vivaro-e, fleet operators will now have a wider pool to choose from.