Light commercial EVs to exceed 2.4m units annually in 10 years

The light commercial vehicle market is at the dawn of an electric revolution.

So says a newly launched IDTechEx report Electric Vans 2020-2030, looking at China, Europe, North America and the rest of the world, outlining eLCV production, penetration, market revenue and battery requirement.

Talk around EVs has mostly focused on environmental and health matters, whereas the main driver will be economic, IDTechEx technology analyst Dr David Wyatt says.

This report will be of value to companies across the automotive industry including OEMs, battery manufacturers, electric drivetrain parts and systems suppliers, materials and research organisations, charging infrastructure developers, government agencies and companies with significant LCV fleets, IDTechEx adds.

The LCV market is uniquely positioned to rapidly transition to EVs, Wyatt says.

“LCV operators primarily base their purchase decisions on total cost of ownership calculations, and whilst the upfront cost of electric LCVs is currently greater than for an equivalent diesel model, the significant operational cost saving from using electricity as a fuel, in replacement of diesel, is increasingly being shown to offset the initial price difference.”

Wyatt expects that as battery pack prices decrease, electric drivetrain efficiencies improve and significant economy of scale savings are realised on the cost of electric components and vehicle manufacturing, it will become a competitive advantage for companies to operate electric vans as they will offer the lowest cost solution.

The addition of road charges for diesel vehicles in low emission zones within urban centres will swing the TCO balance heavily in favour of electric LCVs, he adds.

IDTechEx believes the next few years will see companies doing large scale pilot projects to establish that eLCVs meet their operational range, load capacity, payload and reliability requirements.

“Once demonstrable evidence is there that eLCVs can meet the operational requirements without increased cost, then the widespread replacement of ageing diesel LCVs with eLCV will begin in earnest.”

Visit www.IDTechEx.com/eVans or contact research@IDTechEx.com

for more information.