Will Rivian steal Tesla’s thunder in utes?
Those desperate to invest in “The next Tesla” continue to pile into start-up Rivian, the latest US$350 million coming from a media company.
That takes investment up to the US$2 billion level familiar at Tesla, the IDTechEx report Electric Vehicles 2020 – 2030 suggests.
To over-simplify, Rivian has demonstrated a ute (pickup truck in the US) with exceptional handling due to four near-wheel motors and exceptional range due to a larger battery, IDTechEx technology analyst Luke Gear says. “It will sell pure-electric pickup trucks with Tesla and others close behind. So is it a Tesla killer?”
Tesla-levels of advanced technology are not obvious in Rivian’s revealed product, though they may be in stealth mode, Gear says.
Volkswagen has said that it does not have the full technical repertoire of Tesla yet. Ian Collins, director of development at Polestar UK, a Geely company, says of Tesla “They are far ahead of everyone else”. So do the tear-down experts.
In part, Tesla are global leaders because Mercedes, Jaguar, Audi and others did not choose aspects they could easily incorporate in favour of conventional design, such as lowest drag factor shapes. The revealed Rivian design does not appear to be low drag factor either, Gear explains.
Not having the best powertrain efficiency (power electronics, wireless board signals, highest efficiency motors, etc) compounds the problem for existing car makers, so range and performance for a given price is usually not competitive. No one pretends any more that Mercedes, Jaguar or Audi have Tesla killers on offer yet.
But is Rivian leapfrogging what Tesla will eventually achieve in pick-up trucks? Axial flux in-wheel motors for highest power-to-weight ratio and, with solar bodywork, longer range with less battery? Well no. That is the new Lightyear One car with its Tesla beating drag factor (though Lightyear has a cost problem).
IDTechEx chairman Dr Peter Harrop says; “We are not negative about Rivian.
“Like everyone else we wait to hear what defendable on-going uniques it possesses. Global car sales declined for the first time since the economic crisis last year, yet Tesla is capturing business at the US$20 billion level in 2019 and growing.
“Equally impressive, BYD of China has taken leadership in pure-electric buses worldwide and pure-electric cars in China, making its own batteries, something Tesla is planning.
“Given the perfect storm coming in cars it is important who wins in buses and full trucks more than pickup trucks. Rivian has chosen a good starting point from a US point of view.”
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Since the Rivian’s are very expensive and Tesla will have the Model Y close to shipping, it isn’t likely. The Model X and S are already prohibitively expensive for the masses and suffering in sales due to the Model 3, the Model Y being the SUV version of the 3 will likely sell more than the Model 3 here in the U.S..
Being a 3 time EV owner, I switched to Tesla for their charging network and performance. Having had Nissan Leafs prior, out of city driving was horrid to say the least. Slow charging, Expensive, many many faults with charging systems and in the U.S. we have at least 6 common EV charging companies, all with their own apps, websites and methods to activate chargers.
Once I went on a trip with a friend who had a Tesla, I loved the ‘Plug and Charge’ concept, no screens, no apps, just Plug it in and charge. Not to mention there are thousands of these locations in the U.S. and most have 6-12 charging stations.