NZ to hit 78,000 EVs in 2025?

New Zealand will probably get 33,000 EVs on the country’s roads by the end of this year and should reach 78,000 by the end of 2025.

The latest forecast from Zero Carbon Futures managing director and Newcastle University’s Dr Colin Herron in the United Kingdom indicates the New Zealand target of 64,000 EVs by the end of 2021 should, with the current trajectory, occur in late 2023 or early 2024.

Herron has accurately forecast New Zealand’s EV levels for the past three years, adding a rider to his predictions that the targets he forecasts will eventuate “if nothing significant happens”.

The 64,000 EV goal was set by the National government in May 2016, but Herron says New Zealand EV numbers have been increasing by only about 6000 to 7000 annually.

He projected that New Zealand would get to 11,315 EVs by the end of 2018 (we made 11,763), more than 18,000 in 2019 (18,699) and more than 22,000 in 2020 (24,092) after taking an interest in this country’s EV progression when speaking at the EVworld South Expo in Christchurch in 2018.

EVs and Beyond interviewed him afterwards and caught up a year later to see if his predictions were correct – they were!

While the New Zealand government is considering ways of boosting EVs, Herron believes there’s “very little NZ politicians can do to increase EV uptake as it is 80% supply and 20% price”.

Visit Zero Carbon Futures for more information.