EV predictions hold true

EV registration predictions provided a year ago by Zero Carbon Futures United Kingdom managing director Dr Colin Herron at the EVworld South Expo Christchurch have proved extremely accurate.

EVtalk interviewed him shortly after the event and, a year later he’s provided figures to back up his earlier forecasts.

“A year has passed since you interviewed me in Auckland. Out of curiosity I thought I would check on where you are with EV registrations against the predictions I made at the conference in Christchurch,” Herron says.

“I have updated the slides and the predictions were very accurate. Next year will be interesting as the predictions are based on what is available now in terms of vehicles.”

Herron’s forecast a year ago was for New Zealand to reach 11,315 EV registrations in December 2018, the actual figure being 11,763.

His tracking (increasing by about 500 a month) would then have led close to the 18,186 EV registrations actually recorded in November 2019.

So how is New Zealand looking to achieve the former National Government’s target of 64,000 EVs on the road by the end of 2021?

New Zealand will have to reach about 32,000 EVs by the end of 2020 to remain on track, EV numbers doubling each year.

But Herron says it’s likely to be around 25,000 in 2020 “if nothing significant happens”. That could imply if the Labour-led Government doesn’t step up on its Clean Car Discount (feebate) and Clean Car Standard (emissions) proposals then the EV surge could slow.

Herron had also forecast an EV supply shortage here and in many other countries, adding EV battery production was also insufficient.

While many new EV models are expected in 2020, demand for them in Europe and elsewhere may leave New Zealand with a ‘gap EV year’ in 2020 before supply catches up here.