Big strides in EVs forecast by 2030

An extra 21 million electric vehicles (EVs) will be on the road globally over the next decade, United Kingdom professional services firm Deloitte’s latest research shows.

Battery electric vehicles (BEVs) will significantly outperform the rest of the EV market, accounting for 70% of total EV sales by 2030, it says.

And BEV ownership cost is expected to match that of petrol and diesel vehicles in the UK by 2021 and globally a year or two later.

Deloitte’s research shows the pace of global EV adoption, rising from two million units in 2018 to four million in 2020, 12 million in 2025, before rising to 21 million in 2030.

The analysis points to two factors in accelerating BEV uptake. These are growing consumer demand for greener vehicles coupled with government policies offering financial incentives while placing inner-city restrictions for gasoline and diesel vehicles.

Upfront purchasing costs of EVs remain the biggest barrier for consumers, but the research reveals how, as technology improves, this and other consumer concerns will gradually ease.

Deloitte UK automotive partner Michael Woodward says the tipping point could be reached as early as 2021.

“From this point, cost will no longer be a barrier to purchase, and owning an EV will become a realistic, viable option for new buyers.”

However, A global oversupply of 14 million vehicles is expected as manufacturers’ investment in capacity outpaces demand by 2030.

Growing demand for greener vehicles has seen most OEMs announce their ambitions in the EV market and the emergence of a number of new entrants to the automotive market. But Deloitte’s research suggests the number of manufacturers is unsustainable.

“Whilst there is a distinct trend developing in the EV market, the story is not a clear cut one,” Woodward says.

“As manufacturers increase their capacity, our projections suggest that supply will vastly outweigh consumer demand by approximately 14 million units over the next decade. This gearing up of EV production is driving a wide ‘expectation gap’ and manufacturers, both incumbent and new entrants alike, will need to adapt towards this new competitive landscape.”

Woodward says those that can successfully build trust in their brand, ensure a positive customer experience from initial sale through to aftercare, and reflect consumer shifts towards the sharing economy in future business models will successfully navigate this.

“Equally, continual investment in engineering talent and the formation of partnerships with bespoke battery producers and third-party mechanic networks will also be important.”