NZ EV registrations well short of goal

The former National government’s target of 64,000 EVs on New Zealand roads by the end of this year will be about 27,000 shy.

That’s based on November EV registrations reaching some 35,565 – way under the 64,000 goal with the latter target likely to be reached in late 2023 or early 2024, according to Zero Carbon Futures managing director and Newcastle University’s Dr Colin Herron in the United Kingdom.

He has been following New Zealand’s EV situation for at least three years and, after reviewing the latest EV figures says New Zealand remains “pretty close” to his predictions, reckoning in January that we’d get about 33,000 EVs by the end of 2021.

Herron has accurately forecast New Zealand’s EV levels, adding a rider to his predictions that the targets will eventuate “if nothing significant happens”.

Much may also depend on supply, which Herron believes could get tighter due to demand in the UK and Ireland for secondhand EVs as well as new ones.

“My concern for New Zealand is that secondhand prices for EVs over here might cut off your market,” he says.

“My five-year-old 30kWh Nissan Leaf went on the market at 10,200 pounds (nearly NZ$20,000).”

Herron says the COVID-19 pandemic situation still isn’t sorted and may remain a factor.