US ZEV credit system proposal may have snags – UCS

General Motors proposes a zero emission vehicle credit system across the whole United States.

The “National Zero Emission Vehicle (NZEV) program” would require automakers to sell a minimum volume of plug-in or fuel cell vehicles in the US.

The proposal follows the Trump administration’s plan to freeze vehicle efficiency standards.

The Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS) says GM’s plan “may sound like an innovative idea” but it undermines the country’s progress to higher vehicle efficiency and reduced emissions.

“GM’s ZEV (zero emission vehicle) proposal is hiding a call for a rollback of fuel economy standards,” says UCS clean vehicles senior engineer David Reichmuth in an interview with InsideEVs.

“General Motors is a leader in EVs, and yet they are also calling for reduced efficiency standards for conventional vehicles.”

The Trump administration’s proposal would keep the average fuel economy of passenger vehicles at 37 miles per gallon (15.7km per litre) through 2026. Under current rules adopted by the Obama administration, fuel economy would rise to an average of 47mpg (nearly 20km per litre) by 2025.

A broad coalition of automakers, state governments, and environmentalists oppose the Trump administration’s plan to freeze vehicle efficiency standards, InsideEVs says.

A Bolt driver, Reichmuth says GM recognises the long-term need for vehicle electrification around economics and climate change. The company plans to launch 20 EV models in the next five years. “But that’s different from their short-term sales strategy of selling as many SUVs and pickup trucks as they can now,” he says. “We need to separate GM’s 50-state proposal from what they’re doing on electrification, which is very positive.”

Reichmuth says GM’s proposal for a 50-state ZEV sales requires less than 5% of ZEV sales in the US by 2025. California electric vehicle sales are already at 6% in the first half of 2018. California and other so-called ZEV states are set to require about 8% ZEV sales by 2025.

The zero-emission standards could be gamed because GM’s system would multiply ZEV credits by six-fold for automated EVs, like the many self-driving Bolts going into fleets, Reichmuth says.

He adds those credits could effectively reduce the total required number of EVs to as low as 3% of sales by 2025.

He says GM’s nationwide plan could result in roughly the same total number of EVs across the country compared to the current landscape in which California and nine other states have much higher EV adoption. “It’s a wash on EV sales numbers, but it’s not a wash on what it does to EV policy.

“It’s not helpful to get rid of California’s ability to set their own standards.”

The ability for California to push the boundaries on electrification is critical to ensuring automakers produce and sell EVs for the full range of vehicles from compacts to SUVs, InsideEVs reports.

“There’s an advantage to having some states go further that you wouldn’t get if you spread it out over all states equally,” Reichmuth says.

InsideEVs

sought General Motors’ comment but hadn’t heard back.