Solid-state battery market US$8b by 2031

The EV market’s rapid growth has driven the development, manufacture, and sales of batteries, especially lithium-ion batteries.

In the meantime, interests in solid-state batteries have attracted the attention of material providers, battery vendors, component suppliers, automotive OEMs, and investors, says IDTechEx in its report Solid-State and Polymer Batteries 2021-2031: Technology, Forecasts, Players.

 With an increasing number of players working in this field and some milestones being achieved, the solid-state battery market is expected to grow to US$8 billion by 2031, it adds., reckoning that solid-state batteries can be a game-changer.

 In 2015, Volkswagen got a 5% stake in QuantumScape, Dyson acquired Sakti3, Bosch acquired SEEO, and Johnson Battery Technologies sold its solid-state batteries to BP.

Although in 2017, Bosch gave up SEEO and was selling the company, and Dyson abandoned the technologies of Sakti3, the interest in solid-state batteries never vanished, IDTechEx says.

Ford, Samsung, and Hyundai invested in Solid Power. The latter also partnered with BMW.

Renault, Mitsubishi, and Nissan invested in Ionic Materials. In 2020 there were the newly developed solid-state batteries based on argyrodite electrolyte by Samsung and a further US$200 million investment by Volkswagen on QuantumScape. Honda, Fisker, Panasonic, and CATL also got involved in this game.

Flammable liquid electrolytes in most commercial li-ion batteries are considered a threat to safety as they can easily shrink under high temperatures, lead to short circuits and then catch fire.

Replacing organic liquid electrolytes with solid-state counterparts, solid-state batteries enable safer, long-lasting batteries, IDTechEx explains.

 Better safety means less safety monitoring electronics in the battery modules/packs. Therefore, even the initial generations of solid-state batteries may have similar, or even less energy density than conventional lithium-ion batteries, the energy available in the battery pack can be comparable or even higher than the latter.

 With the larger electrochemical window that the solid electrolytes can provide, high voltage cathode materials can be used. In addition, high-energy-density lithium metal anode can further push the energy density beyond 1000Wh/L.

Lithium-ion battery manufacturing has been dominated by East Asia, with Japan, China, and South Korea playing a significant role.

US and European countries are competing in the race, shifting the added values away from East Asia and building battery manufacturing close to the application market.

New material selection and change of manufacturing procedures show an indication of a reshuffle of the battery supply chain. Solid-state battery development has become part of the next-generation battery strategy.

It has become a global game with regional interests and governmental supports. Opportunities will be available with new materials, components, systems, manufacturing methods, and know-how, IDTechEX says.

Market demand for solid-state batteries mainly comes from EVs. Energy storage systems, consumer electronics such as smartphones, tablets, laptops are also target markets.

With most companies’ mass production plans, like Japan about 2025-2030, Europe 2025-2026, mainland China and Taiwan and 2022-1023, the solid-state battery will likely take off after 2025, although small-scale production may happen earlier.

The car plug-in market will take the largest share (66%) in 2031, followed by smartphone applications.

The interests are heavily driven by the EV market and regional convenience is an important consideration for the next stage of commercialisation, especially based on the current situation with COVID-19 affecting consumers’ purchasing decisions, lifestyle, and influencing globalisation., IDTechEx says.

“This will lead to further consolidation and partnerships and it is highly likely that new solid-state battery manufacturing sites are located near the electric vehicle application market.”

The report covers the manufacturing challenges related to solid electrolytes and how large companies try to address those limitations, as well as research progress and activities of important players.

A study of lithium metal as a strategic resource is also presented, highlighting the strategic distribution of this material around the world and the role it will play in solid-state batteries. Some chemistries will be quite lithium-hungry and put a strain on mining companies worldwide.