Toyota NZ warns ICE ban by 2035 ‘unrealistic’
The Climate Change Commission’s proposed ban on petrol and diesel cars by 2035 ignores the reality that EVs will be in short supply for years to come, Toyota NZ chief executive Neeraj Lala says.
He also says in a NZ Herald column that EVs do not offer the versatility that Kiwi drivers have come to rely on.
“Unfortunately, EVs can’t do everything yet. They are essentially small passenger cars, as were hybrids 25 years ago.
“As hybrids are transitioning into bigger, more functional vehicles, so will EVs – eventually.”
Toyota developed the hybrid Prius more than 20 years ago, and Lala says a possible consequence of the commission’s draft advice to the Government is the appearance in New Zealand of zero-emitting yet potentially zero safety-rated EVs in an attempt to make them affordable.
“In the short term, low-emission powertrains, new technology and advanced safety comes at a premium. But it becomes affordable over time, as have hybrids.”
Lala says the proposed ban in ICE imports could leave New Zealand with more vehicles on the road, rather than the intended reduction.
“I see Kiwis opting to own both an EV and keep their utes for business or SUVs to tow a boat.”
Lala says it could be decades before people can afford an EV.
“We will not have access to thousands of affordable and reliable pre-owned EVs from Japan for a long time.
“As local policies are introduced in Japan, the small selection of EVs circulating in the domestic market will also carry a significant premium and be difficult for New Zealand importers to purchase.”
Lala believes may Kiwis will continue to drive ageing high-emitting cars or not drive at all due to high carbon taxes on petrol and imported cars – putting pressure on public transport infrastructure.
He says while NZ has enough renewable electricity to power more EVs, getting to the commission’s target will get expensive electricity generating and distribution capacity needing to substantially increase when the EV fleet gets to 15 to 20% of the national fleet.
Toyota will introduce two new EVs within the next year, but Lala doubts they will be affordable and available for everybody as new technology carries a high cost of development and production when introduced which needs to be recouped.
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As late starters in the development of pure EVs*, Toyota is trying to promote a dubious point of view. SUVs that are EVs and able to tow are already becoming available worldwide and even in NZ during 2021~2022 (and EV Utes are on the horizon)… OK for now there is a price premium, but this is expected to reduce to parity in a very few years as battery technology improves.
*Hybrids don’t really count as far as I can see. Their reduction in carbon emissions (in ‘real life’ use) over ICE vehicles has been shown in several studies to be often much less than figures obtained in ‘best use’ trials.