Light ICE vehicle imports to end by 2032?

The phasing out of light internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicle importation within 11 years and ending energy generation from coal by 2035 are among actions proposed by the Climate Change Commission.

The ICE import timeline fits with an independent study released last week.

The commission’s newly released draft advice is open for consultation until March 14 with final advice released before May 31, after which the government will respond with an Emissions Reduction Plan before the end of the year.

“Reaching our emissions reduction targets by 2050 is both achievable and affordable according to the commission’s advice,” prime minister Jacinda Ardern says.

“Last term we set our long-lived gases and methane targets and asked the commission for independent guidance on how to get to them. That’s exactly what they have produced. They have also confirmed our goals are achievable if we act decisively and collectively,” she says.

“The report demonstrates we have the tools we need to achieve our target, but calls on us to accelerate our work. As a government we are committed to picking up the pace and focusing much more on decarbonisation and reducing emissions rather than overly relying on forestry.”

Reducing emissions is expected to create new job, business, and export opportunities while also seeing a reduction in energy bills for most households, the government says.

It adds that action is needed across all sectors of the economy, with a particular focus on transport, agriculture and energy.

The release of the draft advice is hailed by climate change minister James Shaw as a significant milestone in the government’s response to the climate emergency,

The commission has proposed the first three five-year emissions budgets and advised that New Zealand’s Nationally Determined Contribution under the Paris Agreement will need to be strengthened in order to be compatible with global efforts to limit temperature rise to 1.5°C.

Mercury says urgency and action are now needed in response to the draft report.

“Everyone has a role to play, but it is clear that bold thinking and supportive policy settings from the Government are needed to meet emissions targets, sooner rather than later,” chief executive Vince Hawksworth says.

“The commission’s draft report is an important stepping-stone. The forward look it provides in terms of the emissions reduction requirements and carbon trading opportunities will help businesses with some of the certainty needed to plan and apply capital towards long term solutions.”

Hawksworth says the passing of the Zero Carbon Act, the commitment by government to decarbonise its own vehicle fleets and, as recently as the past week, the announcements of legislation to set a vehicle emission standard and to consider further incentives for low-emissions vehicles are all building momentum.

“There is still clearly much more to do. The electricity sector and Mercury stands ready to contribute further to a low carbon economy with enough renewable energy consented to support the transition of the entire light transport fleet.”

Careful energy policy settings that stimulate demand for electricity are advocated by Hawksworth – “rather than chasing 100% renewable electricity generation targets which the commission’s advice shows would be expensive and counterproductive to reducing emissions across the economy”.

The commission estimates the cost of meeting its proposed budgets would be equivalent to less than 1% of projected gross domestic product (GDP).

Its draft advice says: “Electric vehicles are currently more expensive to purchase than internal combustion engine vehicles but are cheaper to run. Their upfront costs are expected to fall further leading to significantly lower lifetime costs. In addition to saving emissions, they also improve local air quality and reduce noise pollution. For these reasons, our path sees ambitious adoption of light electric vehicles, including cars, vans and utes, with no further internal combustion engine light vehicles imported after 2032.

“This would mean more than half of all light vehicle travel would be in electric vehicles by 2035 and 40% of the light vehicle fleet would be electric vehicles by 2035.”

The commission says medium and heavy trucks are slower to electrify.

“This is because the current battery technology does not allow for the greater daily distances they need to travel. Of the trucks imported in 2030, 15% of medium trucks and 8% of heavy trucks would be electric. By 2035, these would increase to 84% and 69% respectively.”