NZ likely 30,000 short of 2021 EV target

New Zealand may get to 33,000 EVs on the road by the end of 2021, but certainly not 64,000.

That’s the forecast from Zero Carbon Futures managing director and Newcastle University visiting professor of practice Dr Colin Herron in the United Kingdom who has accurately forecast New Zealand’s EV levels for the past two years.

Asked if New Zealand might get to its 32,000 EV goal by the end of this year Herron says “no chance”, but he expects we’ll achieve at least that – or even 35,000 – by the end of next year when the 64,000 target is supposed to be reached.

The 64,000 EV goal was set by the National government in 2016, but Herron says New Zealand EV numbers have been increasing by only about 6000 to 7000 annually.

He projected that New Zealand would get to 11,315 EVs by the end of 2018 (we made 11,763), more than 18,000 in 2019 (18,699) and more than 22,000 this year after taking an interest in this country’s EV progression when speaking at the EVworld South Expo in Christchurch in 2018.

EVs and Beyond

interviewed him afterwards and caught up a year later to see if his predictions were correct – they were!

We’ve since outlined to Herron the various political parties’ EV incentive proposals prior to the October 17 election and what EV dealers think.

His response?

“We have a lot of that (political) noise in the UK and Europe.

“Let me be clear that there is very little NZ politicians can do to increase EV uptake as it is 80% supply and 20% price,” Herron says.

“Trust me in that there is nothing you can do to accelerate uptake.”

Herron agrees with EV dealers who say 64,000 EVs on our roads by the end of 2021 is now unrealistic.

“Totally agree not a chance, that was clear last year never mind this year!”

Informed that quality secondhand EV stock is harder to get from Japan, Herron says EV sales there are “hopeless”.

“You can only access what they sold two to three years ago.

“The chart shows sales have stagnated and realistically, apart from the (Nissan) Leaf no other BEVs are being sold.

“The Leaf only registered 5700 for the first four months of 2020.”

Herron suggests New Zealand shouldn’t put in more EV charge points until utilisation figures show the demand is there for them.

“Politicians are still addicted to put more and more chargers in,” he says.

“I know a UK city which has just put in circa 40 new rapids and they are at 2.5% utilisation.”

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ChargeNet NZ’s Steve West and the Better NZ Trust chair Kathryn Trounson say NZ EV charging is on track

.